|
Bearish Strategies
Can we summarise the
discussions held last time?
Last time we discussed
option strategies which can be adopted if you are bullish. In particular,
we elaborately discussed bull spreads. This time let us understand
strategies you can follow if you are bearish.
What are the various bearish strategies possible?
The following major
choices are available:
Let us discuss each
one of them now.
What happens if I sell
Scrip or Index Futures?
In the current Indian
system, when you sell Scrip Futures, you are not required to deliver the
underlying scrip. You will be required to deposit a certain margin with
the exchange on sale of Scrip Futures. If the Scrip actually falls (as per
your belief), you can buy back the Futures and make a profit. For example,
Satyam Futures are quoting at Rs 250 and you sell them today as you are
bearish. You could buy them back after 10 days at say Rs 230 (if they fall
as per your expectations), generating a profit of Rs 20. Question of
delivering Satyam does not arise in the present set up.
You will be required to
place a margin with the exchange which could be around 25% (an
illustrative percentage). If you accordingly place a margin of Rs 62.50, a
return of Rs 20 in 10 days time works out to a wonderful 30% plus return.
Obviously, if Satyam
Futures move up (instead of down) you face an unlimited risk of losses.
You should therefore operate with a stop loss strategy and buy back
Futures if they move in reverse gear.
You could adopt the same
strategy with Index Futures if you are bearish on the market as a whole.
Similar returns and risks are attached to this strategy.
How does a Put Option
help in a bearish framework?
The Put Option will rise
in value as the scrip (or index) drops. If you buy a Put Option and the
scrip falls (as you believe), you can sell it at a later date. The
advantage of a Put Option (as against Futures) is that your losses are
limited to the Premium you pay on purchase of the Put Option.
For example, a Satyam 260
Put may quote at Rs 21 when Satyam is quoting at Rs 264. If Satyam falls
to Rs 244 in 8 days, the Put will move up to say Rs 31. You can make a
profit of Rs 10 in the process.
No margins are applicable
on you when you buy the Put. You need to pay the Premium in cash at the
time of purchase.
When should I sell a
Call?
If you are moderately
bearish (or neutral or bearish), you can consider selling a Call. You will
receive a Premium when you sell a Call. If the underlying Scrip (or Index)
falls as you expect, the Call value will also fall at which point you
should buy it back.
For example, if Satyam is
quoting at Rs 264 and the Satyam 260 Call is quoting at Rs 18, you might
well find that in 8 days when Satyam falls to Rs 244, the Call might be
quoting at Rs 7. When you buy it back at Rs 7, you will make a profit of
Rs 11.
However, if Satyam moves
up instead of down, the Call will move up in value. You might be required
to buy it back at a loss. You are exposed to an unlimited loss, but your
profits are limited to the Premium you collect on sale of the Call. You
will receive the Premium on the date of sale of the Option. You will
however be required to keep a margin with the exchange. This margin can
change on a day to day basis depending on various factors, predominantly
the price of the scrip itself.
You should be very careful
while selling a Call as you are exposed to unlimited losses.
How do I use Bear
Spreads?
In a bear spread, you buy
a Call with a high strike price and sell a Call with a lower strike price.
For example, you could buy a Satyam 300 Call at say Rs 5 and sell a Satyam
260 Call at Rs 26. You will receive a Premium of Rs 26 and pay a Premium
of Rs 5, thus earning a Net Premium of Rs 21.
If Satyam falls to Rs 260
or lower, you will keep the entire Premium of Rs 21. On the other hand if
Satyam rises to Rs 300 (or above) you will have to pay Rs 40. After set
off of the Income of Rs 21, your maximum loss will be Rs 19.
|
Satyam Closing Price
|
Profit on 260 Strike
Call (Gross)
|
Profit on 300 Strike
Call (Gross)
|
Premium Received on
Day One
|
Net Profit
|
|
250
|
0
|
0
|
21
|
21
|
|
255
|
0
|
0
|
21
|
21
|
|
260
|
0
|
0
|
21
|
21
|
|
270
|
-10
|
0
|
21
|
11
|
|
281
|
-21
|
0
|
21
|
0
|
|
290
|
-30
|
0
|
21
|
-9
|
|
300
|
-40
|
0
|
21
|
-19
|
|
310
|
-50
|
10
|
21
|
-19
|
The pay off profile
appears as under:
In in a bear spread, your
profits and losses are both limited. Thus, you are safe from an unexpected
rise in Satyam as compared to a clean Option sale.
How do I use
combinations of Futures and Options?
If you sell Futures in a
bearish framework, you run the risk of unlimited losses in case the scrip
(or index) rises. You can protect this unlimited loss position by buying a
Call. This combination will result effectively in a payoff similar to that
of buying a Put.
You can decide the strike
price of the Call depending on your comfort level. For example, Satyam is
quoting at Rs 264 currently and you are bearish. You sell Satyam Futures
at say Rs 265. If Satyam moves up, you will make losses. However, you do
not want unlimited loss. You could buy a Satyam 300 Call by paying a small
Premium of Rs 5. This will arrest your maximum loss to Rs 35.
If Satyam moves up beyond
the Rs 300 level, you will receive compensation from the Call which will
offset your loss on Futures. For example, if Satyam moves to Rs 312, you
will make a loss of Rs 37 on Futures (312 – 265) but make a profit of Rs
12 on the Call (312 – 300). For this comfort, you shell out a small
Premium of Rs 5 which is a cost.
Previous
Page
Top |